2024 recap 

Melbourne has seriously underperformed most other capital cities since COVID. 

Perth and Brisbane seem to have been completely immune to interest rate rises, achieving double digit growth year on year in spite of mortgage rates tripling since 2022. 

So we can’t blame interest rates for Melbourne’s lackluster growth, even negative growth in some instances. 

My opinion (and my opinion alone) is that Melbourne property has been gradually cooling since Cup Day 2021, when lockdowns ended, stimulus ended, and people moved their attention away from property to other things. 

The only reason prices held up for so long was that supply was so restricted all through 2022 and 2023. 

As soon as supply flooded the market in 2024, which has seen the highest volume of listings in Victoria since 2018, and particularly in August, September and October, which has seen the highest volume in Melbourne since 2015, there has been downward pressure on prices. 

This is not across the board. 

Some segments of the market have seen bigger declines than others. 

For instance, it appears to me that smaller houses in Stonnington have been hit harder than family homes. 

I would posit that prices of two bedroom houses in Stonnington have come off by five percent in the last three to six months. 

There has been a huge increase in stock for houses and townhouses between $1,000,000 and $2,000,000, driven primarily by investors selling. 

And given investors aren’t buying and most millennials can’t afford these smaller homes without a lot of help from the bank of mum and dad, the demand just isn’t there.

Family homes have fared far better as they remain scarce, and in demand. 

When prices are flat or in decline, it is an ideal time to upgrade. So demand for family homes remains buoyant. 

We have continued to sell family homes for premium prices with strong competition even in a “patchy” market. 

On the bright side, it does appear that the most challenging market conditions, at least for 2024, are behind us. 

In recent weeks the amount of new stock hitting the market has rapidly dried up and there is a lot less stock on the market now than just four to eight weeks ago. 

This means that we are seeing more buyers and more competition per property. 

Of my last eight auctions, six have sold under the hammer and only two have passed in. 

For my previous eight auctions, only two sold under the hammer and six passed in. 

As always, quality properties that are seen to be good value sell for competitive, and therefore, premium prices. 

In the current market, properties that are even slightly overpriced are seeing little to no buyer activity or interest. 

This is one of the most price sensitive markets I have ever seen. 

To be clear, this is not a bad market to be buying or selling. Far from it. 

Fortune favors the brave… The buyer with the confidence to buy the right home at the right price while most other buyers are hesitating is being rewarded with great value. 

And the vendor with the conviction to list their home with the right agent, at the right price, based on the right advice, is being rewarded with a strong result that is outperforming the market. 

This is our last new listings email of the year, as there are no more auction campaigns starting from next week for the remainder of 2024. 

We will still be doing plenty of deals until Christmas, including many of off market opportunities, so stay tuned.

Feature Property: 5 Union Street, Armadale